The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, is facing an alarming decline in its water levels. If this trend continues at the current pace, the coastal nations surrounding the Caspian Sea may soon face socio-economic challenges, warns Andrey Kostianoy, a leading researcher at the P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology.
According to Professor Kostianoy, climate change is the primary culprit behind the Caspian Sea’s dwindling water levels. The changing climate directly impacts the sea’s water balance, which determines whether the water level rises or falls. The main component of the Caspian Sea’s water balance is river inflow, which is currently decreasing due to reduced atmospheric precipitation in the river basins, rising air temperatures, and increased evaporation from the sea itself.
He said human activities play a relatively minor role in the Caspian Sea’s decline compared to climatic factors, especially since 1995, when the sea level began to consistently decrease.
The consequences of the Caspian Sea’s shrinking water levels are far-reaching, affecting all five coastal states with cities and ports along the shoreline. According to the expert, if the decline continues at this rate for several more decades, it will lead to not only ecological issues but also socio-economic problems that will require urgent attention. These challenges include disruption of port operations, reduced maritime infrastructure functionality, and decreased shipping activities.
Moreover, the socio-economic fallout may result in declining incomes, unemployment, and labor migration among the coastal populations.
Professor Kostianoy expressed hope that the upcoming COP29, set to take place in Baku in November 2024, would provide a crucial platform for specialists and decision-makers from the Caspian countries to engage in dialogue and address the pressing issues surrounding the Caspian Sea’s decline.
