A stark warning was issued to Nigeria this week by the world’s leading energy experts in an eagerly awaited report.
The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook report revealed that a rise in global gas production is likely to create a “gas glut”. The report predicted that global gas prices could drop by as much as 80% as a result.
The analysis also found that global fossil fuel demand will peak before 2030 and then decline. It echoes findings in a separate report published last week, showing that Nigerian fossil fuel use peaked eight years ago.
The findings will call into question Nigeria’s reliance on fossil fuels. The new Dangote oil refinery will begin operating this month, but is not expected to reach full capacity until 2025. Meanwhile, Nigeria is planning a $25 billion gas pipeline between Morocco and Nigeria.
Nigeria has one of the highest rates of energy poverty in the world, with just 25% of some rural populations having access to electricity. The country also has one of the highest costs of electricity in the world.
Recent international research by the world-renowned Yale University found that 61 per cent of people in Nigeria say climate change should be a high or very high government priority, and 68 per cent backed an increase in renewable energy, like wind and solar.
Nasreen Al-Amin, the Executive Director of Surge Africa, said: “This year’s IEA report is clear: There must be no further expansion of oil, gas or other fossil fuel sources should the world wish to stay within the agreed upon 1.5C Paris limit. It shows that gas demand will peak by 2030 – a near success – but it relies on ensuring governments remain dedicated to their NDCs and other national adaptation plans, by rapidly moving financial investments from fossil fuels to clean and renewable energy, among other measures.
“For Nigeria, strategic economic and political measures must be put in place to ensure the energy transition is well coordinated by taking into account the nation’s complex socio-economic structure and existing development gaps. This will help with pathways that eradicate energy poverty, reduce inequality, and promote social and economic security through a decentralised and equitable approach. This effort can be maximised by developing a robust framework to tackle transition risks of stranded assets and economic damage.
“While a lot of effort is needed for a coordinated exit from Nigeria’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels, the country must demonstrate its leadership and willingness to do so by scaling up investments in renewable energy, and immediately begin the process of decarbonising its fossil economy.”
Leila Aly El Deen, chief executive of the Secure Energy Project, said: “Nigeria faces ever higher petrol prices and continuing power cuts, which are crippling business and Nigerian households.
“That’s why almost 70 percent of Nigerians are backing more renewable energy, and over 60 percent are saying climate change should be a high government priority.
“The message to both President Bola Tinubu and Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu today couldn’t be clearer. The age of fossil fuels is over. Both your people and the world’s leading expert organisation are saying: more renewable energy please, as soon as possible.
“Nigeria’s international allies, including many key trading partners, have recently said they will back a tripling of global renewable energy by 2030 at COP28, and that’s exactly what President Bola Tinubu should be doing too.
“Failing to do so would fly in the face of evidence in today’s report. It would ignore the wishes of the people of Nigeria. And it could damage Nigeria’s international standing, especially with the significant UN climate summit fast approaching.”
Just last week, political leaders in the powerful EU bloc backed a global tripling of clean renewable energy by 2030 in a landmark decision. The target, which could create millions of jobs worldwide, has also recently been backed by others, including the G20 and many African countries. The tripling goal could form part of the final negotiating text at climate conference COP28 in Dubai in December.
