UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Tom Fletcher, has released $5 million from the Central Emergency Fund (CERF) for anticipatory action for floods in Nigeria.
Mohamed Malick Fall, the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria
This was announced by the UN’s Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mohamed Malick Fall, who highlighted the need to act ahead of predictable shocks based on strong risk analysis.
“Anticipating and acting ahead of crises such as floods saves lives. It also helps to protect peoples’ livelihoods which in turn reduces their vulnerability,” said Mr. Fall.
“In a global landscape characterised by reducing funds for humanitarian action, this proactive approach is critical as it does not only reduce the worst impacts of emergencies, but it also helps to reduce the overall cost of the humanitarian response.”
The $5 million CERF allocation complements Government-led efforts through the anticipatory action taskforce. The taskforce brings together key agencies including the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, and the National Emergency Management Agency under the stewardship of the Office of the Vice-President. This is in collaboration with the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).
Globally OCHA, which manages the CERF and Country-Based Pooled Funds (CBPFs) such as the Nigerian Humanitarian Fund (NHF), is spearheading anticipatory action assisting millions of people by addressing hazards such as floods, droughts, storms and cholera.
In October 2024, CERF released $5 million to scale up the flood response and address critical needs in Borno and Bauchi states in north-east Nigeria, and Sokoto State in the north-west. The CERF funds complemented a $6 million allocation from the NHF (which included $2 million for anticipatory action released in tandem with the large-scale floods which displaced an estimated 400,000 people in Borno State. The floods decimated livelihoods and destroyed hundreds of thousands of hectares of cropland ahead of harvests).
According to NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal Climate Prediction forecast, the onset of the rainy season over northern states such as Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara, is anticipated between early June and July 2025. This period coincides with the lean season (the period between harvests) when food insecurity and malnutrition levels rise alongside flooding and outbreaks of diseases such as cholera. Timely preparedness against these potential hazards is critical.
Nigeria’s 2025 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan (HNRP) has outlined a risk-informed proactive approach dedicating 5 per cent ($45 million) of total requirements ($910 million) for anticipatory action. This CERF allocation represents only 11 per cent of the requirement for anticipatory action. More funding is urgently needed to scale up early action.
The Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) says it has ramped up its night surveillance operations to fish out persons involved in illegal waste dumping.
Managing Director/CEO of LAWMA, Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin
The authority said that it was leaving no hiding place for persons hiding under the cover of darkness, to dispose of their waste at illegal locations.
This is contained in a statement signed by Mrs. Folashade Kadiri, Director, Public Affairs, and made available to newsmen on Wednesday, February 12, 2025, in Lagos.
The statement said that the agency also reiterated its commitment to enforcing environmental laws, ensuring that offenders were identified and prosecuted accordingly.
The statement quoted the Managing Director/CEO of LAWMA, Dr. Muyiwa Gbadegesin, as saying that the agency’s surveillance and enforcement teams were operating round the clock to track and apprehend individuals who defy waste management regulations.
Gbadegesin noted that the heightened night monitoring was yielding results, adding that multiple arrests had been made in recent days.
“On Feb. 7, 2025, at approximately 9:20 p.m., LAWMA’s enforcement team caught an individual, unlawfully dumping refuse at the road median along Egbeda-Akowonjo Road, near Micom Bus Stop.
“Upon interrogation, the suspect falsely claimed to be a police officer.
“Further investigation at his residence confirmed the absence of a designated waste storage facility and no record of registration with an authorised Private Sector Participant (PSP) for waste disposal.
“Akinsola admitted that his landlord had instructed him to dispose of the waste at the road median. He is being prosecuted accordingly,” Gbadegesin said.
Citing another incident, Gbadegesin said that LAWMA’s Waste Infractions Surveillance and Investigation Team, responded to a complaint about illegal dumping at Abati Primary School, Shasha Road.
He said that upon arrival, the team discovered extensive waste disposal infractions and apprehended over 25 individuals.
“Among those arrested were six vehicle owners who had used their cars to transport and dispose of large volumes of waste.
”All arrested environmental violators will be prosecuted,” he said.
Gbadegesin stressed that LAWMA was not only intensifying enforcement but also expanding its public sensitisation efforts.
He said that the agency’s advocacy team was conducting door-to-door awareness campaigns, educating residents on proper waste disposal practices.
He urged residents to report challenges or dissatisfaction with waste collection services to LAWMA instead of resorting to illegal dumping, particularly at night.
He added that loose waste at illegal dumpsites indicates that many households around the area do not own waste bins.
Gbadegesin reaffirmed LAWMA’s zero-tolerance policy towards environmental infractions and emphasised that every Lagos resident had a role to play in maintaining a cleaner and healthier environment.
He encouraged residents to make use of the agency’s dedicated customer service channels, to report any issues with waste collection, stressing that indiscriminate dumping would no longer be tolerated.
“LAWMA remains steadfast in its mission to transform Lagos into a cleaner and more sustainable city, ensuring that all offenders are brought to justice.
“We want to urge all residents to comply with waste management regulations and contribute to a cleaner metropolis for all.”
Nigeria can meet oil production targets and implement ambitious development programmes from deep-water oil and gas operations if it continues with policies to encourage investments and boost output in the sector, Managing Director, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), Ronald Adams, has said.
L-R: Managing Director, Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), Ron Adams; Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri ; Executive Secretary, Nigeria Content Development and Monitoring Board, Felix Omatsola Ogbe; and Chairman, Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), Wole Ogunsanya at the 9th Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) in Lagos …on Tuesday
“Deep water is a compelling consideration for Nigeria if the country must meet its oil production targets and implement ambitious development programmes,” Adams said while speaking at the 9th Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) which began in Lagos on Tuesday, February 11, 2025.
According to Adams, Nigeria’s deep-water fields are home to some of the world’s most promising associated and non-associated gas reserves, with vast untapped potential that could play a vital role in powering Nigeria’s future, supporting cleaner energy and contributing to global emissions reduction.
“This will require a favourable investment climate to attract capital and innovation to develop these gas resources responsibly and sustainably, ensuring long-term benefits for the country in meeting its energy and global sustainability goals,” he said.
Adams welcomed reforms by government to attract investments especially the signing of three executive orders in February last year on tax incentives, local content compliance requirements and reduction of petroleum sector contracting costs and timelines. Tax credits were also announced for new investments in deep-water oil and gas.
The reforms, he noted, should be part of a renewed strategy to attract investments “through fiscal and regulatory policies that are fit-for-purpose, forward-looking and competitive.
He said that, for Nigeria to consistently reap the benefits from deep-water operations, it must address regulatory bottlenecks through streamlined and faster approval processes and consistent and fair policy enforcement.
Adams, who spoke on Shell’s vision for unlocking Nigeria’s deep-water potential, assured that the company would continue to leverage its expertise since it pioneered production at the Bonga field in 2005 which achieved 1 billion barrels export milestone in 2023. Further developments include the FID on the $5 billion Bonga North deep-water project announced last year.
He said SNEPCo’s deep-water achievements have resulted in the payment of taxes and royalties to government, development of indigenous businesses through contract awards and implementation of social investments across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria.
Adams added: “Shell has powered progress in Nigeria and our vision is to build on our support and help the country to achieve energy security and economic development. We will do this by continuing to take innovative approaches to deep-water development, reducing costs and ensuring better and quicker returns for all stakeholders.”
In a related development, Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has reduced the cost of its diesel product to N1,020 per litre, down from N1,075 per litre at the gantry price, in an effort to better serve its customers and Nigerians in general.
Since it began diesel production in January 2024, the refinery has reduced the price of diesel more than three times, from an initial N1,700 per litre to the current rate, thus providing much-needed relief to manufacturers and consumers alike.
The latest reduction of N55 per litre for diesel follows the revelation by Development Economist and Public Policy Analyst, Prof. Ken Ife, that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery sacrificed over N10 billion to ensure the availability of petrol at a uniform price across the country during the yuletide period. He also praised the refinery for setting a new benchmark in Nigeria’s energy sector by unlocking vast opportunities for export revenue.
Speaking on the transformative impact of the refinery on Arise TV, Prof. Ife explained that for years, the equalisation fund had been responsible for managing the price differentials and transportation costs involved in distributing petroleum across the country. However, it has been reported that the fund owes marketers over N80 billion, according to the development analyst.
“What has actually happened is that the president has shifted the subsidy burden away from the public purse and onto the private sector. The equalisation fund, which was meant to cover the price differential and transportation costs, plays a crucial role. If petroleum is to be sold across the country at a set price, then transportation costs must be accounted for to ensure this is possible. That’s the purpose of equalisation. However, the equalisation fund is reported to owe around N80 billion to the marketers, and this issue is still under discussion.
“During the Christmas season, which is traditionally the most challenging period, we often face shortages of petroleum, petrol hoarding, and arbitrary price hikes, all of which impact the cost of food. In response, during this last yuletide, the Dangote Group made the decision to absorb the costs. They equalised the price themselves, at a cost of over N10 billion. In doing so, they effectively absorbed the subsidy,” he said.
Prof Ife also said the facility is steering Nigeria away from its traditional focus on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) towards a diversified range of petroleum-based exports.
He added that with major international players such as BP and Saudi Aramco purchasing refined products from Nigeria, the country is swiftly becoming a key player in the global petroleum market. The analyst expressed confidence that Nigeria is on the path to self-sufficiency in petroleum products, while simultaneously positioning itself as an energy export powerhouse.
Parties are required to submit updated national climate plans or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat under the Paris Agreement. However, the majority missed Monday’s deadline, including Nigeria and key top emitters.
UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell. Photo credit: UN Climate Change | Kiara Worth
All 196 Parties were required to, on Monday, February 10, 2025, submit their updated NDCs (NDCs 3.0) including targets for 2035, yet just 13 countries met this UN deadline.
The countries include Marshall Islands, Singapore, Zimbabwe, Saint Lucia, Andorra, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Uruguay, United States of America, Ecuador, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates.
Most of the world’s top emitters are missing, with the exception of Brazil and the UAE – two parts COP Presidencies Troika – who published their climate plans during COP29.
The USA submitted its NDC 3.0 in December 2024, prior to President Trump taking office, however, have since exited the Paris Agreement. This has also caused ripple effects as concerns grow that Argentina’s President Javier Milei wants to walk away following the country’s negotiators drop out at COP29.
While Zimbabwe is the only African country on the list, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is leading the way for small island developing states (SIDS) with a target to reduce emissions by at least 58% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions below 2010 levels by 2035. Adaptation is also a strong focus given the enormous threat climate change poses to the island state. Scaling up climate finance will be vital to enabling SIDS to meet these targets and, crucially, implement adaptation plans.
Countries must submit their plans by September at the latest to ensure they are included in the NDC Synthesis Report to be released ahead of Brazil’s COP30.
Analysis from Climate Action Tracker – an independent scientific project that tracks government climate action and measures it against the globally agreed Paris Agreement – finds that none of the updated NDCs currently submitted align with a 1.5°C trajectory.
Given their critical role for setting the global level of ambition for emissions reductions, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell emphasised,“Taking a bit more time to ensure these plans are ‘first-rate’ makes sense.”
Strong NDCs give clear signals to markets and empower non-state actors – such as businesses, industry leaders, NGOs, and civil society – to actively contribute to achieving national climate commitments, transforming ambitious targets into tangible outcomes. At the same time, governments must put in place the right conditions to ensure the plans are implementable, according to observers.
Last week, Stiell provided an update on the state-of-play on global climate action, in this 10th year since the Paris Agreement at the Instituto Rio Branco in Brasília – Brazil’s diplomatic academy. He emphasised the“colossal scale of economic opportunity” the clean energy shift presents and the need to enable all nations to benefit from this potential.
The speech was delivered ahead of Monday’s deadline for countries to submit their updated NDCs under the Paris Agreement. Stiell highlighted, “These national plans are among the most important policy documents governments will produce this century.”
According to the UN Environment Programme’s (UNEP) 2024 Emissions Gap Report, failure to increase ambition in the updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and start delivering immediately would put the world on course for a temperature increase of 2.6-3.1°C over the course of this century.
Ten years ago, 196 Parties adopted the Paris Agreement in a landmark moment for global climate action at COP21 in Paris, France.
At the heart of the agreement are the NDCs, through which each Party is required to communicate its emissions reduction targets and plans to adapt to climate change every five years from 2020 onward. These updated plans must reflect “the highest possible ambition” and are to be informed by the first Global Stocktake.
Research on climate policy is growing exponentially. Of the approximately 85,000 individual studies ever published on policy instruments for mitigating global heating, a good quarter are from 2020 or later. A study led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in the journal npj Climate Action, using machine learning methods, now shows how this vast knowledge is distributed – by instrument, country, sector and policy level – and identifies research gaps.
Jan Minx, a PIK researcher
A corresponding web tool, the “living systematic map”, will help to guide science and policy. It will be continuously updated to reflect the current state of research.
“Rather than directly providing answers to questions about the effects of climate policies, this study displays an overview of what has actually been scientifically studied so far,” explains Max Callaghan, PIK researcher and lead author of the study. “On the one hand, this informs existing gaps and thus directions for primary research, including through funding. On the other hand, this overview facilitates evidence synthesis work, i.e. the summarisation of the state of knowledge for governments, for example in the IPCC Assessment Reports.”
The study shows, among other things, that climate protection policies in the two countries with the largest greenhouse gas emissions – China and the USA – are the subject of particularly intensive research. By contrast, Africa still offers plenty of scope for new insights, with the lowest ratio of research work to enacted policies. The study also identifies a research gap for some smaller countries with particularly impressive emission reductions, namely Greece, Denmark and Iceland.
An analysis by policy instrument shows that economic instruments – and carbon pricing in particular – attract significant research, but that there is a global research gap when it comes to regulatory instruments such as standards or bans. The study warns against “blind spots”, for example with regard to the complementary benefits of such instruments when used in combination with pricing instruments. There is also a research gap with respect to the industrial sector: it accounts for 23 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, 13 percent of implemented climate protection policies, but only 8 percent of the research.
To cope with the enormous volume of individual studies, the research team used so-called machine learning models. These intelligent big data tools are first “trained” on a manageable number of texts using a learning algorithm, and then automatically look at crucial passages to extract the relevant information. These big data tools were applied to a query in the OpenAlex database, which yielded a good million potentially relevant studies, identifying the approximately 85,000 actually relevant studies and generating the map of research on climate policy.
“With this study and the associated interactive web tool, we take a critical step towards enabling rapid and accurate responses to the climate crisis,” says Jan Minx, also a PIK researcher and a co-author of the study. “Our research map is continuously updated and provides snapshot of the available evidence in real-time. It is the basis for an even more ambitious project: a Climate Solutions Evidence Bank, which would then summarise the existing knowledge on what climate policies work for decision-makers.”
Minx notes that thousands of climate policies have already been introduced, from carbon taxes to subsidies for electric cars. “We now need to answer the key question of what works in which context, and we need to do so in real time, with the help of artificial intelligence, automatically updated in light of new studies.”
The unending darkness permeating Nigeria today, unarguably, was the mistake of 2013 when majority stakes in the electricity distribution companies (DISCOs) were sold to private investors as part of larger efforts to improve electricity supply, which was hitherto, disrupted by constant power failure across the country.
National grid lines
Unfortunately, after 12 years of practical operations, these private investors have turned out to be technically incompetent with severe illiquidity challenges that weaken their capacity to perform, demonstrate competence, and deliver electricity satisfactorily to customers in line with policy and public expectations. Worse still, nothing suggestive that the DISCOs can improve in performance and efficiency, translating into a burden for Nigerians, in the absence of government’s interference.
By their poor conduct and performance, the DISCOs have undermined the intention and objective of the Federal Government’s electricity reforms which was aimed at strengthening the power sector through private sector participation for delivery of efficient and quality service. The reforms which started with the enactment of the Electric Power Sector Reform Act 2005 (EPSRA), led to formation of the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) and creation of the Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN). The PHCN was later segmented into Generation, Transmission and Distribution, from where the DISCOs were created.
The reforms were essentially necessitated at the time by constant power failure induced by poor condition of network of power assets, including moribund facilities and equipment together with government’s poor handling and management of the electricity sector. These challenges were identified as obstacles impeding efficient and regular supply of electricity to consumers, leading to eventual sale of six GENCOs and eleven DISCOs to private investors.
So far, the DISCOs have failed to inspire public confidence, as they often attribute their failure to inherited obsolete and unviable equipment, a defence mechanism evidently too weak to attract public sympathy. Inability of the DISCOs to identify from the outset, the depth of facility decay before agreeing to take up responsibility for the job, exposes the gaps in their technical knowhow. And failure to replace most of the moribund equipment and facilities, is a confirmation of their poor financial health, a factor that should have been activated for their disqualification.
Perhaps, as device to mitigate this financial deficit, DISCOs resort to sharp practices, using estimated billing, varied service bands, passing incidence of cost relating to faulty equipment replacement to consumers and unjustifiable blackout.
For example, consumers are fraudulently asked by DISCOs to pay for faulty distribution facilities and equipment, including wires, cables, conductors and transformers, despite leveraging government and banks. Even after compelling consumers to fund replacement of faulty equipment, ownership of such assets reverts to the DISCOs. Yet, no payment waiver or concession is extended to customers for electricity consumed.
Implicitly, consumers indirectly bear part of the DISCOs’ operational cost despite payment for electricity bills. And because the consumers are caught up between the deep blue sea and the hard rock, the DISCOs have now made it a bureaucratic culture to make incessant demands to consumers for replacement of faulty lines and equipment, including transformers. Field electrical engineers of the DISCOs capitalized on this unwholesome practice to constantly push cost of maintenance down the throat of consumers.
Besides, estimated billing has become part of DISCOs’ trick for defraying cost of operations. Consumers are billed based on estimation as against prepaid metering, a preferred option to support their balance sheet. This explains why the process for obtaining prepaid meters is cumbersome and frustrating. Even where the prepaid meters are available, the DISCOs deliberately make the issuance process difficult, just to discourage consumers.
Categorization of consumers into different bands is also a strategy to shore up revenue, particularly in Band A. This category of consumers is allocated a minimum of 20 hours a day, but receive less supply quality, despite associated high tariff of about N207per kilowatt/hour (KWhr).
Consumers that are migrated to bands B, C, D and E also complain of inadequate supply that is not commensurate with their service bands. From approved minimum, Band B is entitled to 16 hours, Band C – 12 hours, Band D – 8 hours, and Band E – 4 hours per day, yet, blackout persists with supply at variance with approved service minimum in the different bands. It appears to be a ruse designed to fleece consumers.
This inefficiency has so negatively robbed off on the DISCOs to the extent that their reputation and public trust have waned. It is so bad that, for example, pickup ladder trucks conveying field workers of DISCOs, now conjure image of crooked personnel going around to extort consumers over non-existent faults. The presence of these field engineers trigger apprehension among consumers over possible alteration of electricity balance. All these are in violation of regulatory operating standards as depicted in the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) set by NERC. The KPIs are metrics designed to measure performance of the DISCOs.
When organizations entrusted with responsibilities to deliver electricity to final consumers have consistently failed to achieve target, resulting in poor quality of life and business downturn, with implications on gross domestic product (GDP), government has the obligation to mediate, and put the sector on a new trajectory to guarantee improved and regular supply of electricity.
This is where the NERC, which was established to oversee the activities of the DISCOs, is expected to act on behalf of government to compel them to operate within the framework of the established KPIs, through regular monitoring and enforcement of compliance. The KPIs include management accountability, increased operational performance, improved electricity delivery, customers’ service satisfaction, metering, customers’ complaints resolution, estimated billing and quality of service delivery.
But so far, the NERC has not lived up to its billings as evident by failure of the DISCOs to meet their KPIs, coupled with flagrant display of nonchalance, impunity and inexperience. Besides 5% reduction in operational expenditure as penalty for non-compliance with energy offtake, no serious sanctions have been slammed on the DISCOs, a gap they have been exploiting to perpetuate darkness in the country.
Put differently, apart from management accountability, which is beyond consumers’ determination, other KPIs are observed more in breach by DISCOs than in compliance. For example, there is no improved performance and increased power delivery to consumers. There is also poor metering system fueled by non-availability or indiscriminate issuance of meters, as well as estimated and delayed billing. Besides, consumers are also compelled to pay for equipment, including cables and transformers. These are part of growing customers’ dissatisfaction over poor services by DISCOs.
While power generation companies (GENCOs) and Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) are not immune from the general inefficiency web of the power sector, if the approximately 5,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity currently generated was optimally and efficiently distributed by DISCOs, using functional and reliable equipment and facilities, the magnitude of blackout currently being experienced in Nigeria would have been slashed.
The spotlight on the DISCOs is informed by their crucial role in the electricity supply value chain. They deliver electricity directly to consumers which provide them the opportunity to interact with customers. The GENCOs and TCN do not interact directly with consumers, and this removes these organisations from public attention despite their importance in the supply value chain.
In other words, the DISCOs are the barometer the general public and consumers use in measuring the power sector performance. Regrettably, none of the DISCOs has shown excellence in their performance, including Abuja Electricity Distribution Plc, Benin Electricity Distribution Plc, Eko Electricity Distribution Plc, Enugu Electricity Distribution Plc, Ibadan Electricity Distribution Plc, Ikeja Electricity Distribution Plc, Jos Electricity Distribution Plc, Kaduna Electricity Distribution Plc, Kano Electricity Distribution Plc, Port Harcourt Electricity Distribution Plc and Yola Electricity Distribution Plc.
The DISCOs are today, part of major reason Nigeria is referred to as a “generator republic”. Until the DISCOs are dissolved and replaced with technically competent investors who are ready to invest heavily in distribution equipment and facilities, homes and industries will continue to suffer from poor electricity supply, posing serious threat to government’s planned provision of reliable and sustainable electricity. In other words, let the DISCOs die so that Nigerian can have light.
Dr. Mike Owhoko, a Lagos-based public policy analyst, author, and journalist, can be reached at www.mikeowhoko.com, and followed on X {formerly Twitter} @michaelowhoko
The State of African Energy 2025 Outlook provides an overview of the dynamics of Africa’s involvement in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, writes NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman, African Energy Chamber
Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP)
The global energy marketplace is shifting toward the acceptance of natural gas as a pivotal component in the transition to cleaner energy solutions, and rightly so.
Africa, with its vast untapped gas reserves, has significant opportunities in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, a market that has quadrupled over the past few decades. However, a host of challenges shadow this potential and threaten to impede its realization.
In our recently released 2025 Outlook Report, The State of African Energy, the African Energy Chamber (AEC) covers the dynamics of Africa’s involvement in the LNG sector, exploring both the potential gains and the inherent risks.
Promise on the Horizon
Africa’s natural gas reserves are substantial, accounting for approximately 6% of global gas supply, with an expected growth of about 15% by 2030. This growth, albeit modest compared to other regions, underscores Africa’s overall LNG potential, considering that global gas demand is projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5% until 2030 and LNG represents approximately 10-15% of that demand.
As covered by our report, an additional 1,000 billion cubic metres (bcm) of supply from pre-final investment decision (FID) projects will be needed to meet the anticipated 2030 demand, and African nations are poised to fill this need. Countries like Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal and Mauritania are positioned to contribute the most. Mozambique, for instance, is on the brink of becoming a major LNG exporter with projects like Mozambique LNG, which, once operational, could significantly boost the continent’s LNG export capacity.
The strategic geographical advantage of Africa cannot be overstated. With close proximity to both the European and Asian markets, African LNG could easily find buyers seeking to diversify their energy sources, particularly in Europe, which has been looking for alternatives amid fluctuating relationships with traditional suppliers like Russia. This strategic positioning presents a unique opportunity for Africa to not only expand its economic base through energy exports but also to accelerate local industrial and infrastructural development.
Economic and Environmental Benefits
The economic benefits of LNG development in Africa are numerous. Job creation, both in the construction and operational phases of LNG projects, would stimulate local economies and offer new employment opportunities to thousands. Furthermore, the revenue generated from LNG exports could be transformative, potentially funding social programmes, improving and expanding healthcare services, education and public infrastructure.
Nigeria, for example, has already benefited from its LNG revenues, enhancing its industrial capabilities around gas-related industries as evidenced by a 45% reduction in gas flaring and a massive 260% increase in production since 2000.
As a more specific example of such benefits, the Nigerian LNG company Nigeria LNG Limited (NLLNG) co-funded the 34-kilometre Bodo-Bonny Road project, committing to 50% of the project’s funding – an amount totaling N60 billion. NLLNG also worked with the Nigerian Conservation Foundation to preserve the Finima Nature Park on Bonny Island.
Continuing on the environmental front, while natural gas is admittedly not an emissions-free fuel source, it is significantly cleaner than coal or oil, offering a transitional pathway toward more sustainable energy practices. Increased adoption of natural gas will help countries in Africa reduce their dependence on more polluting fuels, shrink their current carbon footprints, and get them closer to their climate commitments. However, delivering on these benefits depends on the implementation of stringent environmental standards to mitigate methane leaks, which have a higher potential for negative impact compared to carbon dioxide (CO2).
Navigating Through the Risks
Despite the great potential of a much larger African presence in the global LNG trade, several risks darken the doorway to an otherwise brighter future.
The security of LNG production and distribution sites as well as the overall political stability of their host nations are two of those risks. The development of LNG projects in Mozambique, for example, has been significantly delayed due to insurgency and civil unrest. Such security issues extend project timelines, increase costs, decrease investor confidence, and deter future investment.
Issues concerning regulation and financing present additional risks. Many African countries inadvertently promote regulatory uncertainty, which unnecessarily complicates project approvals and amplifies the financial risk for investors. Securing financing for these large-scale projects is already enough of a hurdle, especially when international investors are wary of the political and economic stability of the region.
The likelihood of remaining competitive is another concern. With North America, Russia and the Middle East leading in gas supply growth, Africa’s LNG industry could face difficulty in finding a secure foothold in the competitive global market. There’s also the risk of market oversaturation, where supply outpaces demand, which could lead to lower prices or stranded fossil fuel assets.
The lack of adequate infrastructure for both export and domestic use of LNG presents another barrier to success in this arena. Projects under consideration like the West African Gas Pipeline and the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which would run west from Nigeria to Ghana and north to Algeria respectively, aim to address this deficiency, but they will require immense capital and cross-border cooperation, which can be challenging to secure.
Finally, there is much to consider regarding Africa’s environmental health. The environmental impact of LNG projects, particularly ones in ecologically sensitive areas, must be managed with care. The global push towards sustainability will also undoubtedly challenge the long-term viability of any fossil fuel projects unless they are paired with significant environmental safeguards or carbon management strategies.
Strategic Pathways Forward
To capitalise on their LNG potential while mitigating risks, African nations engaged in LNG production must consider a number of actions to either remedy or prevent fallout from these issues.
Improving security environments and governance structures will be crucial to attract and retain investment. This includes transparent legal frameworks and active community engagement. To support a much greater role in the global market, Africa’s LNG producers must ensure that addressing political instability and boosting site security become and remain top-tier initiatives.
In addition, diversifying export relationships, rather than relying on a single market, should help ensure continued income streams that can withstand guaranteed but unpredictable market fluctuations. Similarly, developing more localised natural gas markets can foster a greater degree of self-sufficiency when it comes to both financial and energy security.
To acknowledge and address environmental concerns, both current and prospective LNG projects must incorporate environmental sustainability through investments in carbon capture and storage and/or through local renewable energy projects that run alongside LNG production developments.
To not only secure the necessary funding, but to also bring outside LNG production expertise to the negotiating table, African LNG producers must do the work to establish strategic partnerships with foreign nations and form enthusiastic alliances with international LNG firms.
Lastly, looking beyond the establishment of LNG production facilities, garnering investment in comprehensive infrastructure like pipelines, ports and local distribution networks is also essential. Achieving this balance can serve dual purposes in supporting both future exports and domestic energy needs. As detailed in our 2025 Outlook Report, the next decade will be critical in determining whether Africa can turn its LNG potential into a sustainable reality that benefits all stakeholders involved.
Taking a realistic look at Africa’s current position in the global LNG market means acknowledging that it is marked by both promise and the potential for peril. The African continent definitely has what it will take to become a significant player, and by following through, African LNG producers could contribute greatly to both the continent’s economic growth and the global energy mix.
This outcome will require careful navigation through a complex web of political, economic, environmental and market-related challenges. But with strategic foresight, robust governance, and a commitment to sustainability, Africa can harness its natural gas resources not just for export but for the further development of its nations according to many overall quality of life indicators.
The re-election of Donald Trump has thrown global climate leadership into uncertainty, with a rollback of Biden-era clean energy policies, withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, and a focus on fossil fuels over renewables. This moment offers Africa a critical opportunity to strengthen its partnership with Europe for green industrialisation. African policymakers must seize this opening to position the continent as a leader in the global green economy, significantly moving beyond resource extraction to industrial value creation.
Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke
Africa and Europe have long recognised the need for a mutually beneficial industrial partnership to achieve net-zero ambitions and effective climate action. However, practical measures to realise this vision have fallen short. The EU’s new Clean Industrial Deal, promised within the first 100 days of the new Commission’s mandate, presents a chance to rethink this partnership.
While the Draghi report, which foundates the deal, focuses on improving EU competitiveness, it also acknowledges the need for stronger external partnerships, particularly with Africa. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has announced new clean trade and investment partnerships, but how these will differ from past initiatives remains unclear.
Africa’s climate competitiveness is a key asset in this partnership. The continent’s vast renewable energy potential, coupled with its critical raw material reserves, positions it as a vital player in the global green economy. Sub-Saharan Africa is endowed with 30% of global reserves of critical raw materials. African leaders, such as Kenya’s President Ruto, have already emphasised the need to industrialise while decarbonising, reduce the cost of sustainable energy, and build green skills and jobs through initiatives like the Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative (AGII).
These priorities align with Europe’s goals, but the starting points and means to achieve them differ. Africa must leverage these differences to forge complementary partnerships with Europe, ensuring that value addition and industrial jobs remain on the continent.
However, current narratives often reduce Africa to a supplier of raw materials, echoing post-colonial patterns that have historically benefited elites and foreign companies while leaving little added value for local populations. This approach erodes trust and fails to recognise Africa’s potential as a future market for intermediary or final products. For example, instead of exporting raw lithium, African countries could develop local battery manufacturing capabilities, tapping into the growing global.
In the same vein, green iron imports from countries like Namibia and South Africa, rooted in their renewable energy advantages, are not only technically feasible but economically sound. Such partnerships could transform value chains, with Africa supplying processed inputs to Europe, enhancing the competitiveness of industries like steel while creating jobs and value on the continent.
Europe’s energy scarcity further strengthens the need for Africa’s partnership. Many African countries, with their ample renewable energy resources, can offer the climate competitiveness Europe lacks. Energy-intensive industries, such as steel production, could be more efficiently located in Africa, where renewable energy is cheaper and more abundant. Technological innovations, like hydrogen direct reduced iron (HDRI) furnaces, present opportunities to locate production in countries with competitive green energy, such as those in Southern Africa. This would not only reduce costs for European industries but also accelerate global decarbonisation efforts.
Yet, one must acknowledge that challenges remain. African countries must negotiate investment partnerships that ensure fair terms and local value capture. Past deals have often favoured buyers, leaving African nations with limited benefits. To attract EU investments, African governments must develop clear, country-led industrialisation pathways and Just Energy Transition Investment Plans (JETIPs).
These plans should focus not only on export markets but also on domestic and regional markets, fostering industries like food processing, e-mobility, and textiles. African can gain EU support for this with the continent investing in skills, innovation, and technology transfer, ensuring that African economies are not just recipients of technology but active participants in the global green economy.
There are lots of potential and concrete opportunities for dialogue and partnership agreements, with the inauguration of the Green Industrialisation Initiative on the African side, a new African Union presidency coming up and a new EU commission focused on green industrialisation and competitiveness.
The upcoming AU-EU Summit in 2025 creates a momentous room for African leaders to set the tone for the future of Africa-Europe partnerships. African policymakers can ensure that green industrialisation delivers tangible benefits for their citizens by advocating for fair terms, local value addition, and regional integration. Such collaboration would allow both continents to pursue their industrial and climate goals more effectively, ensuring stable progress in the face of shifting U.S. policies and reinforcing mutual benefits in sustainable development, competitive markets, and energy security.
Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, a Professor of Global Governance and Public Policy at University of Bristol, is Visiting Professor at the London School of Economics, UK and Co-Chair of Ukama Platform, a group of thought-leaders that aim to strengthen Africa-Europe relationship to achieve just sustainability transformation
Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPCL), Malam Mele Kyari, has reiterated the company’s commitment to strengthening collaboration with stakeholders in the oil and gas sector.
Dignitaries at the official opening of the 9th Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) in Lagos
He said this on Tuesday, February 11, 2025, at the ongoing 9th Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (SAIPEC) in Lagos.
The theme of the conference is “Building Africa’s Future: Advancing Local Content and Sustainable Development in the Oil and Gas Industry”.
Kyari, who was represented by Mr Udobong Ntia, Executive Vice President (EVP) of NNPCL’s Upstream Division, emphasised the importance of timely investments and resilient energy systems for socio-economic development across Africa.
He assured attendees that NNPCL is focused on fostering collaboration, unlocking opportunities, and addressing challenges through shared goals.
He highlighted the conference’s significance in facilitating discussions on investment prospects, cooperation, and advancing common objectives for the region’s energy future, particularly regarding local content and sustainable growth.
According to him, the conference is a crucial platform for stakeholder engagement and opportunity identification.
Kyari showcased the progress of Nigeria’s gas export market, citing the ongoing NLNG Train 7 Project, which he added, would boost Nigeria’s LNG production capacity to 30 million tons per annum (MTPA).
He said the planned Nigerian-Morocco and Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline projects would supply gas to neighbouring African countries and eventually to Europe, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as a major global energy player.
Kyari also emphasised the need to balance energy transition with energy security, stating that the oil and gas industry remains a significant component of the global energy mix and would continue to be crucial for the next 50 years.
NNPCL, according to Kyari, is focused on increasing production, developing gas infrastructure, expanding refining capacity, and driving sustainability initiatives.
“Energy demand is projected to rise globally, driven by Africa’s growing population.
“As part of our efforts to contribute to a cleaner energy future, Nigeria has declared the decade from 2021 to 2030 as the Decade of Gas, aiming to build a gas-powered economy,” Kyari said.
He said that NNPCL is making substantial investments in critical gas infrastructure, including the Ajaokuta-Abuja-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline and the OB3 gas interconnector, designed to facilitate five billion standard cubic feet per day (Bscf/d) of domestic gas utilisation and five GW of power generation capacity.
Kyari further stressed Africa’s strategic advantage in meeting its energy needs and reducing reliance on energy imports.
He also underscored the importance of regional collaboration, innovation, and investment in energy efficiency, adding thqat it would be key to ensuring the continent’s long-term energy sustainability.
Earlier, Mr Wole Ogunsanya, Chairman of the Petroleum Technology Association of Nigeria (PETAN), expressed happiness in hosting the event, which brought together top industry experts from around the world.
Ogunsanya emphasised the role the oil and gas sector plays in driving economic growth and energy security across the region.
He noted the association’s commitment to advancing Africa’s energy future through strategic partnerships and collaboration with governments and key stakeholders.
“PETAN has long advocated for deeper collaboration and innovative solutions to tackle the challenges facing Africa’s energy sector.
“We applaud the efforts of countries like South Africa, Egypt, and Morocco in advancing renewable energy, and we are optimistic about the continent’s potential to harness its vast natural energy resources,” he said.
Ogunsanya also highlighted the success of international partnerships, such as the new production sharing contracts (PSCs) signed by Panoro Energy in Equatorial Guinea and BW Energy in Gabo.
According to him, these partnerships are testaments to how global collaborations are driving energy development and creating new opportunities for exploration and production.
He said that as the conference continues, PETAN remained committed to addressing the gaps that had hindered Africa’s energy sector and would promote sustainable growth through greater collaboration.
The European Union said it would respond with “firm and proportionate countermeasures” to the U.S. decision to impose tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, escalating fears of a trade war.
European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen
U.S. President, Donald Trump, signed proclamations on Monday, February 10, 2025, raising the U.S. tariff rate on aluminium to 25 per cent from his previous 10 per cent rate.
Trump eliminated the country exceptions and quota deals as well as hundreds of thousands of product-specific tariff exclusions for both metals.
The measures would take effect on March 4, a White House official confirmed.
The tariffs will apply to millions of tons of steel and aluminium imports from Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and other countries that had been entering the U.S. duty-free under the carve-outs.
The move will simplify tariffs on the metals “so that everyone can understand exactly what it means,” Trump told reporters. “It’s 25 per cent without exceptions or exemptions. That’s all countries, no matter where it comes from, all countries.”
Trump said he would follow with announcements about reciprocal tariffs on all countries that impose duties on U.S. goods over the next two days, and said he was also looking at tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Asked about threats of retaliation by other countries against his new tariffs, Trump said: “I don’t mind.”
European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, said she deeply regretted the U.S. decision, adding that tariffs were taxes that were bad for business and worse for consumers.
EU steel exports to the U.S. have averaged about €3 billion ($3.1 billion) a year over the past decade.
In a statement, Von der Leyen said: “Unjustified tariffs on the EU will not go unanswered. They will trigger firm and proportionate countermeasures. The EU will act to safeguard its interests.’’
Von der Leyen did not provide details of the response. One option would be to reactivate the tariffs the EU imposed in 2018 that were suspended under a truce agreed between von der Leyen and then-U.S. president Joe Biden.
The EU tariffs on U.S. products such as bourbon, motorcycles and orange juice are currently suspended until the end of March.
According to American Iron and Steel Institute data, steel imports accounted for about 23 per cent of American steel consumption in 2023 with Canada, Brazil and Mexico the largest suppliers.
Canada, whose abundant hydropower resources aid its metal production, accounted for nearly 80 per cent of U.S. primary aluminium imports in 2024.
Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, on Tuesday called the tariffs “unacceptable”.
Speaking on the sidelines of the Paris Artificial Intelligence Summit, Trudeau said Canada would seek to highlight the negative impact of the U.S. tariffs and if necessary its response would be firm and clear.
“Canadians will stand up strongly and firmly if we need to,’’ he said.
Trump also will impose a new North American standard requiring steel imports to be “melted and poured” and aluminium to be “smelted and cast” within the region to curb U.S. imports of minimally processed Chinese and Russian metals that circumvent other tariffs.
While China exports only tiny volumes of steel to the U.S., it is responsible for much of the world’s excess steel capacity.
According to the U.S. subsidised production in China forces other countries to export more and leads to trans-shipment of Chinese steel through other countries into the U.S. to avoid tariffs and other trade restrictions.
Following losses in Asian and European steel makers on Monday, shares of Chinese steel makers dropped further on Tuesday, while shares in U.S. steel and aluminium makers jumped ahead of the proclamations.
