Introduction
In 2015, a mere seven stations were selling Petrol Motor Spirit (PMS) between the airport junction and the City Gate in Abuja, a distance of about 26.2km. Fast forward to 2023, and this number has tripled to 15, signifying a 260% increase in the post-Paris Agreement era. This stark contrast between global sustainability talks and local actions in energy policy prompts a critical reflection: Is Nigeria genuinely progressing in alignment with its sustainability rhetoric? What is the lesson here? Are we advancing according to our talk?
Nigeria’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) is a near-term emission abatement strategy regarding how Nigeria pledges to reduce its carbon emissions by 2030. As a signatory of the Paris Agreement (Article 4.2), Nigeria is required to “prepare, communicate and maintain” successive nationally determined contributions (NDCs) that it intends to achieve. Nigeria disclosed its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2015. In the NDC of 2015, Nigeria targeted a reduction in its emissions of 20% under the “Unconditional NDC” – if no external support is received. However, with international assistance, Nigeria pledged a 45% emissions reduction below its business as usual by 2030.
2021 Update to the NDC
Nigeria raised its ambition in the updated NDC and increased its conditional contribution. Hence, Nigeria’s updated NDC has an unconditional contribution of 20% below business-as-usual by 2030 and now has a 47% contribution conditional on international support. Committing to this level of climate ambition in the face of lower-than-expected economic growth represents a significant enhancement, as it will result in substantially lower absolute GHG emissions than stated in the 2015 NDC. The scale of the emissions reductions – a 47% conditional contribution of around 100 MtCO2e below current (2018) levels – is consistent with a global 1.5°C pathway.
2050 Long-Term Vision for Nigeria (LTV-2050): Towards the Development of Nigeria’s Long-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)
The LT-LEDS is a strategy that the government of Nigeria has developed in the framework of the Paris Agreement (Article 4.19), with the intention to lower its emissions, in this case, to net zero by 2060. In the LT-LEDS, an economy-wide decarbonisation approach was considered, including both energy and non-energy sectors.
Energy Transition Plan (ETP) (2021)
Energy transition – the global energy sector’s shift from fossil-based systems of energy production and consumption – including oil, natural gas and coal – to renewable energy sources like wind and solar, as well as lithium-ion batteries.
Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP) was developed in 2021 with support from the COP26 Energy Transition Council (ETC) and served as the basis for her commitment to net zero by 2060 at COP26 in Glasgow. Since then, the plan has been approved by the Nigerian Government Federal Executive Council. The ETP is a strategy developed to explore Nigeria’s journey to net zero, with a focus on the renewable transition. The ETP explored three scenarios, namely:
- a baseline scenario (based on the current pathway for macroeconomic development and without decarbonisation effort);
- an NDC-guided scenario (incorporating existing national programmes with decarbonisation effects. NDC 2015 was used); and
- a net zero 2050 scenario (focusing on electrification and the renewable transition).
All scenarios were initially modelled to 2050, with additional work then done to explore how costs would spread/change if the net zero target date were extended to 2060. However, a 2060 pathway was not modelled. The ETP is very ambitious on renewables. For example, net-zero by 2050 required 200GW of solar, which meant around 7-8GW per year.
Energy Transition Investment and Funding Needs
Nigeria requires about $1.9 trillion to get to Net Zero by 2060, including $410 billion above projected usual spending.
Most of the effort will be needed in the power sector: extra CAPEX is needed to finance the power sector generation capacity ($270 billion), and the T&D infrastructure ($135 billion). Significant savings in terms of fuel costs for power considering the switch to 90% renewables (-$121 billion) compensates for some of the CAPEX increases.
The additional cost to reach a net zero economy translates to about $10 billion annually.
Climate Finance Landscape in Nigeria
Climate finance in Nigeria was largely provided by public actors (77%), while the private sector lagged behind (23%).
Most of the climate finance was committed to energy systems, with (on/off-grid) solar receiving the lion’s share of investment therein (66%). As the energy sector is the highest emitter (accounting for 60% of Nigeria’s total emissions), renewable energy finance is estimated to make up the bulk of Nigeria’s investment needs.
Domestic Finance
The Federal Ministry of Environment provided for a Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (CPEIR) in its 2017 budget. However, no such formal assessment has yet been carried out.
Green Bonds: Nigeria has developed a strong institutional framework for green bonds. The programme has successfully catalysed $165.1 million in climate finance.
The Rural Electrification Agency (REA) commissioned the electrification of 100 isolation centres in early 2022 and planned to electrify 400 more primary healthcare centres in 2022. Additionally, REA, as part of its COVID-19 response, electrified four isolation centers in Lagos, Ogun, and Abuja.
Higher learning institutions are also being powered using off-grid clean energy solutions to combat irregular electricity supply and fluctuation in voltage that have disrupted academic activities and damaged sensitive research equipment. Under the Energising Education Programme (EEP), REA has powered several federal universities across the country, including Bayero University, Kano, and Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ebonyi State.
Havenhill Synergy electrified 21 primary healthcare centres (11 in Oyo State and 10 in Kwara State) as part of a Power Africa grant.
In 2019, a 10 MW solar plant was installed at the University of Ibadan; the GIZ supported the project under the “Scaling Up University Electrification” Program. In 2020, All On gave NGN 180 million to Auxano, Arnergy, GVE, and Lumos to provide solar backup systems to power nine emergency health centres in Ibadan, Lagos, Port Harcourt, and Enugu. In September 2020, the Federal Ministry of Power, with the support of the European Union and the German government, commissioned a 260 kWp solar hybrid system at the National Reference Laboratory of the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) in Gaduwa, Abuja.
Takeaway message: However, juxtaposed with the investment requirement in the ETP, these estimated energy finance needs dwarf the tracked climate flows of $798 million committed to energy systems in 2019/2020.
Lessons: The familiar story
Lack of political and leadership will. The prevalent lack of political and leadership will, coupled with numerous conferences and workshops that yield minimal tangible change, underscores the urgency to close the Talk-Action Gap, even within offices purportedly spearheading these transitions.
Lessons
Nigeria is lagging behind.
- In 2021, Nigeria launched the first locally assembled electric vehicle, Hyundai Kona, by Stallion Motors.
- The pilot programme by the National Automotive Industry Design and Development Council (NADDC) in partnership with the Stallion Group and other stakeholders to roll out 100 solar-powered electric vehicle charging stations across Nigeria.
- In 2015, Kia Nigeria introduced the Kia Soul EV, the first electric vehicle in Nigeria.
- Jet Systems, an indigenous electric vehicle maker, is disrupting the passenger minibus market with the Jet Mover Electric Vehicle, which it describes as a cheaper and cleaner alternative to ICE vehicles.
Challenges and areas for investment
- Charging infrastructures are not available. Lack of charging stations.
- Lack of technicians that would fix electric vehicles
- Lack of facilities for maintenance and high cost of maintenance
- Electricity supply is epileptic
- Battery production is low
- Insecurity and lack of policy by the government
- Concerns with battery strength and lifespan compared with gasoline engines.
Suggestions
- Political Will: Governments must foster a conducive legislative environment that incentivises the transition to new technologies.
- Research: Delve into consumer demand issues and develop smart charging solutions.
- Infrastructure Development: Prioritise the establishment of charging infrastructure.
- Policy Implementation: Expedite the implementation of the Nigeria National Action Plan for EV development, ensuring it encompasses strategies for sustainable investments by all stakeholders.
Closing: In Case Nigeria Will Listen
In 1900, New York City grappled with the environmental challenge of horse dung cleanup due to the prevalent use of horse-driven carts for transportation. This scenario witnessed a drastic change with the advent of fossil-fuel-driven motor vehicles and is now navigating towards EV adoption. Today, New York City is home to 25,075 EVs, about 1% of this total of all registered vehicles.
Global car manufacturing brands have announced targets for electric vehicle production. Mercedes announced it will produce All-electric cars by the end of the decade.[1] Volkswagen announced its All-electric ambitions. Specifically, it set goals for 80% EV sales in Europe and 55% in North America by 2030. For Volvo, by 2025, it aims for 50% of its global sales to consist of fully electric cars, with the rest being hybrids. By 2030, every car it sells should be fully electric.
Historical transitions in vehicle types in Nigeria also offer a lens through which to view the impending global shift towards sustainable transportation. In Nigeria, by 1970, the most important vehicles on the roads were Volkswagen Bettle, Vauxhall, Peugeot 403 and 404. Today, they have phased out. This prompts a critical question: What plans are in place for our SUVs in the coming years?
Key recommendations
- Close the Talk-Action Gap: Ensure alignment between policy commitments and actionable strategies.
- Redirect Public Sector Financing: Channel financial resources towards achieving NDCs and energy transition plans.
- Encourage Private Sector: Facilitate and incentivise private sector involvement in renewable energy projects.
- Attract International Funding: Engage experts and stakeholders who can navigate international funding mechanisms effectively.
By Chinedum Nwajiuba and Chukwuemeka Emenekwe, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Ndufu-Alike, Nigeria (chnwajiuba@yahoo.de; emenekwe.c@gmail.com)
