Fast moving, wind-driven infernos continue to torch parts of highly populated and expensive real estate near Los Angeles. Hurricane-force wind gusts have rapidly spread fires with life-threatening impacts expected to continue through Wednesday night
Multiple fast-moving wildfires have engulfed parts of Southern California, causing thousands to evacuate. At least three named fires – the Palisades, Eaton and Hurst fires – erupted on Tuesday, January 7, 2025, amid intense winds that have amplified the devastation of the blazes. A fourth, the Tyler fire, broke out early Wednesday and has burned 15 acres so far.
AccuWeather’s preliminary estimate of the total damage and economic loss from the devastating wildfires burning in Southern California and endangering and disrupting lives is between $52 billion and $57 billion.
“This is already one of the worst wildfires in California history. Should a large number of additional structures be burned in the coming days, it may become the worst wildfire in modern California history based on the number of structures burned and economic loss,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist, Jonathan Porter, said.
The worst of the fires are burning in an area from Santa Monica to Malibu, impacting some of the most expensive real estate in the country, with median home values over $2 million. There are significant risks for residents, their homes and their businesses, as well as negative impacts on tourism and health, due to smoke inhalation and smoke damage in non-destroyed structures going forward.
The estimate is preliminary, as the infernos continue to spread and impacts continue to occur, and some areas have not reported information about damage, injuries and other impacts. The extent of the devastation suggests a long and challenging recovery process that will require the collective efforts of the community and support from authorities. Many residents in the Pacific Palisades are reporting they have no property insurance because insurance companies no longer provide coverage for real estate in the highly priced and high-risk area.
Importantly, should the fires continue to spread rapidly into densely populated neighborhoods, many thousands of additional very expensive structures will be at risk of burning down, which may result in the AccuWeather estimate for total damage and total economic loss being revised upward substantially.
“This is a fast-moving, wind-driven inferno that is threatening lives and causing catastrophic damage. AccuWeather experts estimate the total damage and economic loss from the windstorm and wildfires in Southern California is between $52 and $57 billion,” Porter said. “This is a terrible disaster. We’re just starting to get a clear look at the magnitude of the destruction and loss. Strong offshore winds have been gusting at 70-100 mph. Fire crews are dealing with hurricane-force wind gusts as they valiantly try to battle the flames and contain these fires.”
As the fires unfolded on Tuesday night, mass evacuations unfolded across the region, with traffic backed up to a point where people were abandoning their cars, leaving behind vehicles that clogged roads. The state had to bring in heavy equipment to clear abandoned vehicles and clear a path for firefighting resources.
Other fires in the region, including the Eaton, Woodley and Hurst fires, are adding to the devastation, burning brush as well as commercial and residential structures, with the risk remaining for other fires to develop. Tragically, at least two fatalities have been reported in the Eaton fire.
“Powerful wind gusts have been blowing embers from home to home, allowing these wildfires to explode quickly and burn out of control. Offshore winds are further drying out vegetation and reducing relative humidity, which is enhancing the fire risk. Please follow all official evacuation orders. This is a life-threatening situation that will continue after dark tonight, even after the highest winds subside because gusty winds of 25-45 mph will persist across the fire areas,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Western U.S. Weather Expert, Dave Houk, said.
“Wind gusts in the vicinity of the fires will be at least 40 mph through Wednesday evening. Breezy to locally windy conditions will persist into Thursday, and there will probably even be an uptick in winds in the typical Santa Ana prone areas Thursday afternoon through Thursday night and into early Friday morning. The fire risk can still be extreme. For firefighting efforts, winds will wind down the rest of Friday. Another round of stronger winds and an increased fire risk is expected to return to the region early next week,” added Houk.
AccuWeather’s damage estimate incorporates independent methods to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of the storm, includes both insured and uninsured losses and is based on a variety of sources, statistics and unique techniques AccuWeather uses to estimate the damage to property, job and wage losses, crops, infrastructure damage, interruption of the supply chain, auxiliary business losses and flight delays or cancellations.
The estimate also accounts for the costs of evacuations, relocations, emergency management and the government expenses for cleanup operations. It also includes the long-term effect on business logistics, transportation, tourism as well as the tail health effects and the medical and other expenses of yet unreported deaths and significant injuries, as well as the long tail of negative impacts to physical and mental health that survivors may face in the next decade.
To put the wildfire event into context, the AccuWeather estimate for the total damage and economic loss from the wildfires in Maui in 2023 was $13-$16 billion. The wildfires in the western United States in 2020 was $130-$150 billion and in 2021 was $70-$90 billion. More recently, the hurricanes that impacted the United States included Milton causing $160-180 billion and Helene causing $225-$250 billion and the 2024 hurricane season as a whole reaching nearly a half-trillion dollars.
Porter says as is often the case with major disasters, the cause is not one singular factor but rather several unusual factors conspiring together. In this case, the combination of strong offshore winds, a strengthening area of low pressure in the Southwest, a lack of rainfall and exceptionally dry vegetation is contributing to the extreme windstorm and fire risk, which is why AccuWeather meteorologists were so concerned and warned people and businesses days in advance to be vigilant and to be prepared for evacuations.
“An area of high pressure over Nevada that is producing Santa Ana winds in California, combined with an area of low pressure over Southern California with significant wind energy, is amplifying the extreme winds in the Los Angeles region,” Porter explained.
He added: “The last two wet seasons in Southern California were plentiful with rainfall, mountain snowfall and even flooding. This allowed vegetation to flourish. The jet stream is located much farther north compared to the historical average thus far this winter, bringing rain and mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and even some storms to Northern California. But it has been a whole different setup in Southern California where it has been incredibly dry over the last few months, during a time that is typically when the region receives the most rainfall during the entire year.
“In fact, it was all the way back in April 2024 where there was more than 0.25 of an inch of rain in Los Angeles. The last two wet seasons led to an abundance of grass and vegetation growth in Southern California. That extra vegetation has all dried out over the summer months, fall and into the early part of the winter and is now essentially tinder that can fuel these fires.”
Homes, businesses, vehicles, chemicals and fuels burning in the fires are contributing to hazardous air quality in parts of Southern California.
“Millions of people could be exposed to unhealthy and dangerous air quality across the Los Angeles region from these fires,” Porter warned. “In areas of poor air quality, people in the area should use N95 respirator masks and limit their time outdoors to reduce their exposure to this wildfire smoke.”
