A new report by InfluenceMap using the Carbon Majors database quantifies the contribution of the world’s largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers to global carbon emissions, which are the primary driver of climate change. The report shows that the majority of global CO2 emissions produced since the Paris Agreement can be traced to a small group of high emitters who are failing to slow production.
These 57 corporate and state entities can be linked to 80% of fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions from 2016 through 2022. Nation-state producers account for 38% of emissions in the database since the Paris Agreement, while state-owned entities account for 37%, and investor-owned companies for 25%.
The Carbon Majors dataset contains emissions data from 1854 through 2022. New analysis of the whole dataset reveals that over 70% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution can be traced to 78 corporate and state producing entities. Over the same period, just 19 entities contributed 50% of these CO2 emissions.
Top 10 entities historically (1854–2022) are: China (Coal) (14% of global CO2 emissions), Former Soviet Union (6.8%), Saudi Aramco (3.6%), Chevron (3.0%), ExxonMobil (2.8%), Gazprom (2.3%), National Iranian Oil Co. (2.2%), BP (2.2%), Shell (2.1%), and Coal India (1.5%).
Top 10 companies since Paris Agreement (2016–2022) include: Saudi Aramco (4.8%), Gazprom (3.3%), Coal India (3.0%), National Iranian Oil Co. (2.8%), Rosneft (2.1%), CNPC (1.7%), Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (1.7%), ExxonMobil (1.4%), Iraq National Oil Co. (1.4%), and Shell (1.2%).
Daan Van Acker, Program Manager at InfluenceMap said: “The Carbon Majors database is a key tool in attributing responsibility for climate change to the fossil fuel producers with the most significant role in driving global CO2 emissions. InfluenceMap’s new analysis shows that this group is not slowing down production, with most entities increasing production after the Paris Agreement. This research provides a crucial link in holding these energy giants to account on the consequences of their activities.”
The Carbon Majors dataset is said to have proven crucial in holding fossil fuel producers to account for their climate-related impacts in academic, regulatory, and legal contexts. Examples include quantifying the contribution these entities have made to global surface temperature, sea level, and atmospheric CO2 rise; and establishing corporate accountability for climate-related human rights violations in the Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines’ 2022 National Inquiry on Climate Change.
President and CEO of the Centre for International Environmental Law (CIEL), Carroll Muffett, said: “Richard Heede’s landmark Carbon Majors research transformed the landscape of climate accountability by using the fossil fuel industry’s own reported production and operation figures to calculate and expose the true scale of its role in the climate crisis. By updating and extending that research – and making it more widely accessible and usable for researchers, decisionmakers, and litigators alike – InfluenceMap’s new Carbon Majors database will transform that landscape yet again.
“The Carbon Majors database makes it dramatically easier to document, calculate, and visually demonstrate the growing chasm between the urgent demands of climate reality and the continued reckless and intentional growth of oil and gas production. Critically, it enables us to track changes in corporate behavior and production across discrete and clearly defined timescales that will be relevant to investors, investigators, and litigators alike. It is a vital and powerful new tool in the work toward climate action and climate accountability.”
International Programme Director at Stand.earth and Chair at Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, Tzeporah Berman, said: “The Carbon Majors research shows us exactly who is responsible for the lethal heat, extreme weather, and air pollution that is threatening lives and wreaking havoc on our oceans and forests. These companies have made billions of dollars in profits while denying the problem and delaying and obstructing climate policy.
“They are spending millions on advertising campaigns about being part of a sustainable solution, all the while continuing to invest in more fossil fuel extraction. These findings emphasise that, more than ever, we need our governments to stand up to these companies, and we need new international cooperation through a Fossil Fuel Treaty to end the expansion of fossil fuels and ensure a truly just transition.”
MarĂa Mendiluce, CEO, We Mean Business Coalition: “The Carbon Majors database highlights just how deeply entangled our economies and societies are with fossil fuels. The good news is that a new paradigm is emerging. Ahead of COP28, hundreds of companies came together to call for the phase out of fossil fuels.
“We Mean Business Coalition’s Fossil to Clean campaign has shown that a rapid transition away from fossil fuels is possible and makes good business sense. As that demand signal continues to grow louder, those most exposed to the fossil fuel industry are going to be left behind.”
Other key findings from the analysis include:
- The top five investor-owned companies, Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, and ConocoPhillips are responsible for 11.1% of historical fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions (196 GtCO2).
- The top five state-owned companies, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, the National Iranian Oil Company, Coal India, and Pemex, are responsible for 10.9% of historical fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions (194 GtCO2).
- Coal supply since 2015 has shifted from investor-owned to state-owned entities. Investor-owned coal production emissions dropped by 939 MtCO2e, a decrease of 27.9%, from 2015 to 2022. However, emissions from nation-state and state-owned producers grew by 2,208 MtCO2e and 343 MtCO2e between 2015 and 2022, increases of 19% and 29%, respectively.
- Most fossil fuel companies totaled higher production in the seven years after the Paris Agreement compared to the seven-year period before. 65% of state-owned companies and 55% of investor-owned companies showed higher production in 2016–2022 than in 2009–2015.
- The increase in production by state- and investor-owned companies after the Paris Agreement compared to before is most prevalent in Asia. All five Asian investor-owned companies and eight out of the 10 Asian state-owned entities are linked to higher emissions in 2016–2022 compared to 2009–2015. This is primarily shaped by rising emissions from Asian coal production.
