United States’ President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% universal tariff on nearly all imported goods, coupled with higher “reciprocal” tariffs targeting specific nations, poses a risk to the U.S. economy and ordinary citizens, but will not affect the energy transition and renewables trade globally, according to an analysis by 350.org.
The renewables trade had already significantly shifted away from the United States, even before Trump’s tariffs, with most wind and solar equipment manufactured in China. Only 4% of Chinese clean tech exports actually go to the U.S. – in a trade sector where sales volume grew by about 30% last year, this makes the U.S. merely a footnote, not a global player.
Clean energy is a natural price stabiliser – sun and wind, as abundant domestic resources, are not commodities traded on volatile global markets that are prone to economic shocks or political upheaval. They are also now the lowest cost energy sources, both in up front and long-term expenses. With the cost of living a top concern globally – these facts cannot be discounted.
Andreas Sieber, Associate Director of Policy and Campaigns at 350.org, says: “Trump’s tariffs won’t slow the global energy transition – they’ll only hurt ordinary people, particularly Americans. Despite his claims he ‘gets’ economic policy, his record tells a different story: tariffs are tanking U.S. stocks and fueling inflation. The transition to renewables is unstoppable, with or without him. His latest move does little to impact the booming clean energy market but will isolate the U.S. and drive-up costs for American consumers.”
ANALYSIS
- Global Clean Energy Expansion: While advanced economies such as the USA and countries in Europe dominated the renewables market up until a decade ago, emerging and developing economies are projected to account for 70% of solar PV, 60% of wind, and 60% of battery storage market share by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook.
- Diminishing U.S. Market Share: The United States now represents a mere 7% of the global market for newly installed solar power plants and an even smaller share of global renewables trade.
- China’s Clean Technology Exports: China dominates the manufacturing of wind and solar equipment. China’s exports of clean technology, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs), have surged independently of Western markets. Only 4% of these exports are destined for the U.S., compared to 15% for China’s overall exports.This renders US tariffs ineffective to significantly curb a market where sales volume grew about 30% in 2024.
- Tariffs’ Impact on U.S. Consumers: Historical data indicates that tariffs imposed during President Trump’s first term were largely passed on to consumers, leading to increased prices on everyday goods. Indicators of the first weeks of his presidency indicate rising inflation, and poor economic performance will harm the US economy and ordinary citizens.